The present invention pertains to support of products and pertains particularly to an authoring tool for Bayesian network diagnostic systems.
Currently, it is highly expensive for printer manufacturers to diagnose the systems of their customers. Typically, a customer calls a printer call agent at the manufacturer. This call agent guides the customer through a troubleshooting sequence that leads to resolution of the problem or identification of the cause. This method requires the intervention of a call agent which results in a high cost.
When using call agents the printer manufacturer hires many call-agents which the customer in turn can call when he experiences problems with his printer system. The call-agent attempts to gather as much information as possible by interviewing the customer over the phone. When he reaches the conclusion, he will either have solved the problem, identified the cause, or had to dispatch a field agent that will attempt to resolve the problem at the customer site.
One drawback of using call-agents is the expense. In addition, there can be problems with consistency in the order and types of troubleshooting steps used by different call agents. It is a problem if customers are not given approximately the same troubleshooting steps in the same order with similar problems, as they may then feel confused. Also, the call agent solution allows only limited logging of information, has only limited integration of programmatic data-collectors, and very limited integration of multi-media presentations. Use of call-agents however, does provide the benefit of human-to-human communication between the call agent and the customer as the call agent will obviously be able to detect soft information that a computer-based system cannot easily detect, such as, e.g., whether the customer is irritated with some line of questioning, the level of experience of the customer, and so on.
Decision trees can be used to provide automated diagnosis of printer systems. The decision-tree approach specifies the possible troubleshooting sequences as a so-called decision tree. At each branching of the tree, one of the branches will be chosen based on the information provided by the customer at the last step. However, decision-trees are static in the sense that for practical reasons it only allows a limited number of possible sequences of the troubleshooting steps. With decision-trees all sequences that should be available to the customer have to be encoded and as the size of the decision tree is exponential in the number of these, it is only possible to encode a limited number of them. This on the average will cause the decision tree to provide longer troubleshooting sequences with lower probability of actually diagnosing the problem, as it is not possible to take all possible scenarios into account.
Case-based reasoning can also be used to provide automated diagnosis of printer systems. The case-based approach gathers a high amount of descriptive cases from troubleshooting scenarios where various problems are seen. Based on information about the current situation, the case-based reasoning engine can then select the cases that are most similar. The most similar cases are then investigated to find the best next action or question that has the highest likelihood to rule out as many cases as possible. This continues until the single case that matches most the current situation is determined.
Case-based systems gather cases that are descriptive of the troubleshooting domain and use these cases to suggest actions and questions that as quickly as possible narrows the scope down to a single case. The quality of a case-based system hinges on its case database which has to be very large to adequately describe a printer system domain. The possible configurations/cases in a printer system are 2N for N variables (1024 for 80 variables), if all the variables are binary. A subset of cases out of these would have to be extremely large to be sufficiently descriptive to be useful to a case-based system. Thus, it is doubtful that case-based systems will be successful in representing the printing system with its many variables to an optimal level of accuracy.
Rule-based systems can also be used to provide automated diagnosis of printer systems. Rule-based systems can be perceived as a subset of Bayesian networks, as they can be represented with Bayesian networks. They have a subset of the modeling capabilities of Bayesian networks, and the belief updating methods are not guaranteed correct as they are with Bayesian networks.
Rule-based systems, however, have updating methods that are not optimal when there are loops in the model. Loops are very common in models of real-world systems (e.g., common causes, troubleshooting steps that fixes several causes, etc.).
One troubleshooter based on Bayesian networks is described by Heckerman, D., Breese, J., and Rommelse, K. (1995), Decision-theoretic Troubleshooting, Communications of the ACM, 38:49–57 (herein “Heckerman et al. 1995”).
A Bayesian network is a directed acyclic graph representing the causal relationships between variables, that associates conditional probability distributions to variables given their parents. Efficient methods for exact updating of probabilities in Bayesian networks have been developed. See for example, Lauritzen, S. L., and Spiegelhalter, D. J. Local Computations with Probabilities on Graphical Structures and their Applications to Expert Systems. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 50(2):157–224 (1988), and Jensen, F. V., Lauritzen, S. L., and Olesen, K. G., Bayesian Updating in Causal Probabilistic Networks by Local Computations, Computational Statistics Quarterly, 4:269–282 (1990). Efficient methods for exact updating of probabilities in Bayesian networks have been implemented in the HUGIN expert system. See Andersen, S. K., Olesen, K. G., Jensen, F. V. and Jensen, F., HUGIN—a Shell for Building Bayesian Belief Universes for Expert Systems, Proceedings of the Eleventh International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence. (1989).
Bayesian networks provide a way to model problem areas using probability theory. The Bayesian network representation of a problem can be used to provide information on a subset of variables given information on others. A Bayesian network consists of a set of variables (nodes) and a set of directed edges (connections between variables). Each variable has a set of mutually exclusive states. The variables together with the directed edges form a directed acyclic graph (DAG). For each variable v with parents w1, . . . , wn, there is defined a conditional probability table P(v|w1, . . . , wn). Obviously, if v has no parents, this table reduces to the marginal probability P(v).
Bayesian networks have been used in many application domains with uncertainty, such as medical diagnosis, pedigree analysis, planning, debt detection, bottleneck detection, etc. However, one of the major application areas has been diagnosis. Diagnosis (i.e., underlying factors that cause diseases/malfunctions that again cause symptoms) lends itself nicely to the modeling techniques of Bayesian networks.
The currently most efficient method for exact belief updating of Bayesian networks is the junction-tree method that transforms the network into a so-called junction tree, described in Jensen, F. V., Lauritzen, S. L., and Olesen, K. G., Bayesian Updating in Causal Probabilistic Networks by Local Computations, Computational Statistics Quarterly, 4:269–282 (1990). The junction tree basically clusters the variables such that a tree is obtained (i.e., all loops are removed) and the clusters are as small as possible. In this tree, a message passing scheme can then update the beliefs of all unobserved variables given the observed variables. Exact updating of Bayesian networks is NP-hard (Cooper, G. F., The Computational Complexity of Probabilistic Inference using Bayesian Belief Networks, Artificial Intelligence, 42:393–405, (1990)), however, it is still very efficient for some classes of Bayesian networks. The network for the printing system contains several thousand variables and many loops, but can still be transformed to a junction tree with reasonably efficient belief updating.
Heckerman et al. 1995 presents a method for performing sequential troubleshooting based on Bayesian networks.
For a device to troubleshoot that has n components represented by the variables c1, . . . , cn, Heckerman et al. 1995 follow the single-fault assumption that requires that exactly one component is malfunctioning and that this component is the cause of the problem. If pi the probability that component ci, is abnormal given the current state of information, then i=1npi=1 under the single-fault assumption. Each component ci has a cost of observation, denoted Cio (measured in time and/or money), and a cost of repair Cir.
Under some additional mild assumptions not reproduced here (see Heckerman et al. 1995 for more information), it can then be shown that with failure probabilities pi updated with current information, it is always optimal to observe the component that has the highest ratio pi/Cio. This is intuitive, as the ratio balances probability of failure with cost of observation and indicates the component with the highest probability of failure and the lowest cost of observation. Under the single-fault assumption, an optimal observation-repair sequence is thus given by the plan set out in Table 1 below:
TABLE 1Step 1:Compute the probabilities of component faults pi giventhat the device is not functioning.Step 2:Observe the component with the highest ratio pi/Cio.Step 3:If the component is faulty, then repair it.Step 4:If a component was repaired, then terminate.Otherwise, go to step 1.
In the plan described in Table 1 above, if a component is repaired in step 3, it is known from the single-fault assumption that the device must be repaired, and the troubleshooting process can be stopped. The algorithm works reasonably well if the single-fault assumption is lifted, in which case step 1 will take into account new information gained in steps 2 and 3, and step 4 will be replaced as in Table 2 below:
TABLE 2Step 1:Compute the probabilities of component faults pi giventhat the device is not functioning.Step 2:Observe the component with the highest ratio pi/Cio.Step 3:If the component is faulty, then repair it.Step 4:If the device is still malfunctioning, go to step 1.
Heckerman et al. 1995 introduces a theory for handling a service call that is used when the expected cost of the most optimal troubleshooting sequence is higher than the cost of a service call (e.g., calling the manufacturer for assistance). The theory changes to the above plan that enables it to approximately handle systems with multiple faults and non-base observations. Non-base observations are observations on something that is not a component but potentially provides useful information for the troubleshooting process. In a companion paper (Breese, J. S. and Heckerman, D., Decision-theoretic Troubleshooting: A Framework for Repair and Experiment, Technical Report MSR-TR-96-06, (1996) Microsoft Research, Advanced Technology Division, Microsoft Corporation, Redmond, USA), the method is further advanced to also enable configuration changes in the system to provide further useful information that can potentially lower the cost of the optimal troubleshooting sequence.
However, the Bayesian-network based troubleshooters described by Heckerman et al. 1995 have a one-to-one correspondence between causes and actions which does not hold in reality, have myopic (one-step lookahead) selection of questions, and have too slow selection of questions when there are many of them. Furthermore, Heckerman et al. 1995 presents no method of knowledge acquisition for their troubleshooters.